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Week 1 Sunny, Week 2 Possible Storms! /

Submitted by ba January 18, 2014 - 9:21am Weather

The only thing to mention weather wise this week is a piece of energy that is going to push in along the OR/CA border Thu/Fri and then move Southeast.  We could see slightly cooler temps along with some clouds from that.

We are still watching for the potential change in the pattern with the ridge of high pressure moving away from the West Coast starting next weekend.  We have been talking about this all week and continuing to watch and hope nothing changes. As of this morning the GFS and European forecast models are still showing a West Coast trough by the end of the month.  The operational runs are still showing storms entering CA from off the Pacific sometime between the 27th and the 30th.  

You can see the flip pretty clearly in the GFS ensembles control run.  Here is next Sunday the 26th with the ridge still along the West Coast.

GFS Heights 1/26

Then 3 days later a trough...

GFS Heights 1/29

The European ensembles are very similar to the GFS with the trough moving in around the 27th and lasting into the first week of February.  The GFS alone would not build much confidence in a pattern change as so far this Winter it has been different that the Euro and then switches to the Euro.  The fact they are in agreement is a much better sign for us in the hope we see a pattern change and some storms week 2.

The NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast for the Pacific North American Pattern agrees that we will go into a -PNA pattern by the end of the month.  That is also a West Coast trough.

 

So to recap.  Week 1 dry, week 2 a possible pattern change to a West Coast trough and some storms.  Stay tuned....BA

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