Conditions today should be similar to yesterday with highs in the 40's up on the mountains with a cool breeze and 50's at the base.
Tomorrow we will see an increase in winds and clouds as the storm approaches. The models have pulled back on the timing and amount of precip that looks to reach the Sierra during the day Tuesday. It looks like most of the precip will hold off until Tuesday night.
The total liquid output for the storm Tuesday night through Wednesday is down a little again this morning on the forecast models. The storm also looks a little warmer to start with snow levels starting up around 8000 ft. That will lower the snow:water ratios for the storm bringing down the forecasted totals as well. I have adjusted the snowfall forecast back to the forecast from Saturday.
The heaviest snow will fall Wednesday morning with snow levels dropping to the base. We could see snow showers linger into Wednesday night in some spots. Total snowfall on the mountain looks to be around 4-8 inches by Wednesday night. This will be thick snow which will help to build the base.
I mentioned a couple of days ago that I didn't think the forecast models pumping a big ridge over the West this weekend made sense given the overall pattern. This morning they all changed and now show a trough over the Rockies and a small ridge off the CA Coast. That will allow some more waves to move through the Pacific NW and the Northern tip of CA into the Rockies. The biggest change for us is that the high temps will stay down in the 40's into the weekend instead of the 50's.
For next week the GFS forecast model continues to show low pressure in the Northeast Pacific and a cold trough with associated jet stream punching into CA. It has been consistent run to run for the past few days in showing a cold and prolonged snowfall even the second half of next week. The European forecast model runs show the low in the Northeast Pacific further North and a ridge trying to push towards the West Coast cutting off the moisture feed before it gets going. I would like to see some other forecast models jump on board with the GFS this week.
The GFS brings in another strong system the first week of April and keeps the trough along the West Coast in the long-range with the ridge out in the central Pacific. The long-range teleconnection forecasts aren't really pointing towards a dry or wet pattern so we could go either way. Stay tuned.