Nice weather this week and Spring skiing will be on tap by this weekend with temperatures up into the 50s Thursday through Saturday.
There is still some discrepancy between the forecast models on how far South the storm coming into the Pacific NW on Sunday will push. Right now it looks like the biggest affect for us will be some wind, clouds, cooler temps, and maybe a few flakes up high.
Things continue to look interesting for next week. Originally it had been the GFS forecast model that was showing the potential for a decent storm the 6th through the 8th. Now the GFS has the flat ridge off the coast keeping most of the precip to our North. However....the European forecast models have the ridge over Alaska and the low digging South down the coast under the ridge and bringing in a pretty good storm for the Sierra. Right it is trying to dump 1-3 feet over the basin.
We will have to keep watching the trend over the next few days. I like the idea of the Sunday storm pushing the ridge East and then the ridge building over Alaska and Western Canada forcing the low in the Pacific further South next week. Like yesterday the question is still will the flat ridge off the CA coast keep the low to our North or will the high pressure to the North force it far enough South for us to get a good dump?
This storm may be the beginning of the pattern reversal we are looking for in March. The thinking is that the NAO will finally go positive and Spring will start in the East, while the PNA pattern goes negative and Winter will settle in over the West. The PNA pattern is the biggest correlation to wet and snowy weather for the Sierra. If we can get the -PNA pattern to setup here in March we should be able to start recovering some snow. BA