Not much change in the overall forecast the past few days. We still have the cold front that will bring in some cooler air tomorrow and the possibility of a quick snow shower, but not expecting any accumulations. Then the ridge of high pressure builds along the West Coast keeping away any storms through next Monday. So mainly a dry week ahead with some cooler temps that moderate into the weekend.
We have been talking since last week about the ensemble runs showing the ridge moving into Western Canada and the possibility the jet stream undercuts into CA. The forecast models continue to be in agreement with this shift in the pattern and the potential for a train of storms starting the middle of next week. Of course we should be weary of this forecast since there was a forecast for a big storm this week a week ago which is not going to happen. The setup is different this time though. We are not hoping for a cold trough to dig down the coast that could shift East and dig down to our East instead. This would be the storm track shifting South and aiming at CA from across the Pacific with several cold storms in a row.
Some of the forecast model runs hint at light snow as early as next Tuesday, but hold off the first significant wave until next Wed/Thu. That still puts this possible pattern change into the 7-9 day window. Not in 10+ day fantasy land, but not in the 7 day growing confidence window yet either. Still in the 10-30% chance window as of this morning. The part I like is the aggreement among all of the models over the past 5 days. So fingers crossed....
The ensemble runs this morning show the possibility that the trough hangs around off or along the West Coast through the first week of March continuing the chance for snow storms.