Some high clouds already moving in this morning ahead of tomorrow's storm. That will keep down temps today, so they may struggle to hit 50 if the clouds continue to thicken. It will be breezy as well so with the wind chill the temperatures up on the mountain may be a little chilly.
The good news is that the forecast models have increased total liquid amounts for Sunday as the front sits over the area longer and pulls in a little more moistures. Light snow should begin in the early morning hours and continue all day Sunday. The temperatures will remain above freezing at the base so only an inch or two should accumulate. On the mountain it looks like we may see 2-4 inches with maybe up to 6 inches above 8000 ft. on the highest peaks where temps stay at or below freezing.
For Monday brief ridging moves back in and we warm back into the 50's briefly ahead of the next storm.
Clouds and wind will be on the increase Tuesday ahead of the next stronger and colder storm. The ridge will quickly slide East and a large cold trough will drop down from the Gulf of Alaska. The front begins to push into CA by Tuesday night. Still some timing differences on the forecast models but they all agree the snow begins to fall at some point Tuesday night. The heaviest snow fall on Wednesday as the front and associated jet stream push through and then snow showers linger into Wednesday night.
There is still a lot of disagreement on precip amounts and what happens on Thursday and Friday behind the front. Some forecast models are showing up to an inch of liquid on the mountain and others show over 2 inches of liquid. Taking an average that gives us 9-12 inches at the base and12-15 inches on the mountain, with up to 18 inches possible for the higest peaks by Thursday morning.
Some forecast models then bring the main low pressure down to our East Thursday with very light scattered snow showers, and more light snow showers Friday with a wave sliding down over or just to the East of the Tahoe Basin. That brings only light additional accumulations of an inch or two with lots of cold air remaining over the area.
Other forecast model runs are have more moisture as the low moves through on Thursday with a few more inches of accumulation. What is interesting is that a stronger storm for Friday is now showing up in the Canadian forecast model this morning. So there is still an outside chance we see this happen but that is the outlier.
Next weekend the ridge builds in drying things out again but it may not be for long. The long-range models continue to show retrogression of the ridge out to 150-160w and 40n in the Pacific for the week of the 11th. That digs a large cold trough into the Eastern Pacific and along the West Coast. Several cold lows could move through over the week of this pattern develops. If we see some undercutting of the ridge out in the Pacific by the subtropical jet stream into the West Coast in combination with the cold trough we could see some big snowfall. That is definitely a possibility with potential setup.
For now the long-range models have weak to moderate cold systems for that week, but we'll take all the snow we can get. For now we will not get too excited and just be happy that snow is in the forecast over the next two weeks. But we will be hoping and praying that things setup right for some bigger storms week 2 and beyond...BA