Some positive changes in the forecast this morning. The last several forecast model runs have come in line with the thinking of bringing the storm further South on Sunday. Also, better consensus on the storm for next Wednesday.
It looks likely now that we will see at least some precip on Sunday from the storm moving into the Pacficic NW. The GFS forecast model is colder and has lighter amounts of precip with maybe a couple of inches on the mountain. The latest runs of the European forecast model pull in some subtropical moisture. This makes the storm a little warmer but still all snow on the mountain. The snowfall amounts are higher with the extra moisture being pulled in with up to 6 inches on the mountain.
We will have to watch over the next couple of days to fine tune precip amounts. It will be a big change after a sunny day Saturday with highs in the 50's.
A large low pressure and trough dig down the West Coast next week bringing in more snowfall by Wednesday for the Sierra. The setup of this storm has the potential to bring us a lot of snow but right now the forecast models are not clear on precip amounts. We are still 7 days away which is a little early to talk about snowfall amounts. Right now there is a spread among the forecast models of a foot up to 3 feet for the mountain.
The long-range forecast has the ridge rebuilding along the West coast for about a week after the storm next week. If that were to happen it should be short-lived if teleconnection forecasts are correct. We should see snow return by mid-month. BA