Plenty of sun Thursday and Friday before we have a pattern change this weekend. Light snow will push into Tahoe on Saturday followed by some heavier snowfall for Sunday into Monday. Rigth now it looks like a dusting to a couple of inches for Saturday and then we could see a half foot or more Sunday into Monday.
It looks like some moisture will undercut the ridge and bring light snow showers on Saturday. Most likely a dusting to a couple of inches on the mountain. As the ridge builds away from the coast a storm will drop in from the NW Sunday night into Monday with snow and colder air. This one will have more moisture and should bring several inches of snow. I would feel confident in a forecast 5 days out of 3-6 inches at the base with 6-9 at the summit. We can fine tune them as we get closer.
The forecast models disagree next week after the storm with some moving the ridge closer to the coast by mid-week pushing the storms just to the North, and the others bring in another storm Wednesday with several more inches. Some forecast models also keep the ridge near the coast through the end of the week, and others begin to retrograde it awy from the coast allowing another cold storm in for Friday.
Right now I wouldn't put much confidence in the forecast beyond Monday. The pattern will remain active over the Pacific NW and if the ridge sits far enough off the coast we could get some more light snow Wednesday and Friday next week. The long-range models show the ridge continuing to retrograde West in the Pacific week 2 and week 3. That could open up the storm door more as we head further into the month. Stay tuned for updates. BA