Good news for the new snowpack this week with the mild precip staying mostly to our North. It would be rain up to 9000 ft. if we got any precip so maybe we'll just stick with the clouds keeping the sun off the snow while we have mild temps. The best chance for some light precip is some light rain on Thursday.
Saturday night into Sunday morning a colder wave of precip breaking away from the Gulf of Alaska trough will drop into Northern CA. It will weaken as it come inland but the models still show up to a half inch of liquid over the basin and up to three quarters of an inch along the crest. Snow levels will fall to base level by Sunday morning. Above 7000 ft. it looks like we could see 3-6 inches on the lower half of the mountain with 6-9 inches on the upper half.
It looks like ridging will return Monday with mild temps into Tuesday of next week. A large cold trough and associated low pressure will begin digging down the coast next week. We could see some snow begin to fall as early as late Tuesday on the mountains with quickly falling snow levels below lake level. By Wednesday morning all of the forecast models have cold low pressure slowly moving down the West Coast with heavy snowfall for the Tahoe basin. The low pressure stays just off the coast pulling in Pacific moisture and pushing cold air down the coast, with several waves of precip rotating in Wednesday and Thursday.
This setup is one that can bring several feet of powder to the Sierra. We have been talking about this could trough for several days and will be watching closely how it sets up over the next 7 days. If we get 2-3 feet of cold powder on top of the several feet of base building snow last weekend, conditions are going to be amazing.
After this storm models in the long-range are still split on whether the ridge builds in off the West Coast bringing a dry pattern the last week of the month, or it stays further West to the North of Hawaii continuing the colder and stormier pattern.