Expecting the shower activity to diminish today through Saturday morning. Then the cut-off low moves towards the coast tomorrow pushing precip back into the area. Most of the precip should be stuck up along the Western crest and West side of the basin until Saturday night. Snow levels will be above 8000 ft., even close to 9000 to start tomorrow.
Saturday night as some colder air at the center of the low moves towards the area the snow levels will begin to fall. Expecting most of the snowfall to stay above 8000 ft. Saturday night where 2-4 inches could fall on the mountain.
By Sunday morning the snow levels should be approaching 7500 ft. and still falling. As the core of the low moves overhead later Sunday into Sunday night there should be enough cold air to get snow levels down to 6500 ft. or even close to the base. Above 7000 ft. we could see another 3-6 inches Sunday and Sunday night.
Snow showers should linger on the mountains through the day on Monday. The GFS forecast model is quicker to push the low to our East but the European model is slower and makes more sense. We could see another 1-3 inches on the mountain Monday. Under the heavier bands later Sunday into Monday morning we could see snow start to accumulate at the base of the mountain.
Total snowfall on the mountain should be around 6-12 inches by the time we tally up the totals on Tuesday morning.
We see a break and warmup quickly Tuesday and Wednesday. Then a subtropical moisture feed pushes back into the area Thursday and Friday underneath of low pressure in the Northeast Pacific. We should see more precip with several inches of snow above 8000 ft. over the 2 days.
Then the forecast models start to diverge. A cold low pressure with a cold front will begin to approach the Pacific NW for next weekend. The GFS forecast model keeps the heaviest precip to our North with lighter snows on the mountains next weekend. The deterministic run of the European forecast model brings the cold low right into Nothern CA with a significant snowstorm down to lake level. The European ensemble models are in the middle with a cold front and falling snow levels with a foot or two of snow on the moutnain.
We will be monitoring this event all week to see how much cold and how much precip we will get. This looks like our best chance at a significant snow since December if the European model runs are right. BA