Skies are cloudy this morning and on radar you can see the precip falling across Northern CA. The forecast models this morning are delaying cold front even longer and keep the precip to our North until Monday morning. As the cold front pushes through Monday morning a band of precip will push through the Tahoe Basin. The snow levels will quickly fall near base level but the precip will be short-lived. Looking at the latest forecast model runs we should see 2-4 inches of snow on the mountain Monday morning.
By Tuesday a ridge of high pressure is building in along the West Coast with dry conditions through next weekend. Temperatures will be in the 40's most of the week on the mountain.
The ridge will begin to breakdown by next Sunday and reform North of Hawaii. Looking at the latest model runs the ridge will quickly build East in the Northeast Pacific towards 130w. That could be close enough to the West Coast to keep the next storm on the 17th-18th from dropping South into CA. The Canadian forecast model is the only model still showing the system on the 17th pushing snow down into Tahoe.
The European forecast model has the ridge beginning to shift West in the North Pacific by the 18th with a cold trough dropping down the West Coast by the 19th-20th. The GFS model is the most delayed with the retrogression of the ridge and doesn't bring down the cold air until after the 20th.
Looking at the long-range forecast model runs they continue to show further retrogression of the ridge in the North Pacific out towards the Aleutian Islands beyond the 20th. That would allow cold troughs to dig down further off the West Coast and would open the storm door further. If this trend continues we should see a few cold storms before the end of the month.