It is windy up high this morning as a storm is moving through the Pacific Northwest. We have a pattern change this week after a week of colder and snow showery weather.
We should see sunny skies and warming temperatures through the weekend. Another system will move through the Pacific NW on Thursday and then the ridge will amplify up the West coast Friday and Saturday rising temperatures into the 50's.
By Sunday a storm is going to push into the ridge and affect the Pacific Northwest. There are a few model runs bringing precip as far South as Tahoe but I would not expect that at this time with the ridge over the West.
Then next week a ridge will be building over Western Canada and will try to suppress the storm track Southward down the West Coast. There will be a flat ridge off the coast of CA. The question is how much will the ridge of the coast be flattened and how far South will the storm track be forced under the ridge to the North? Some model runs bring a couple of good storms into Northern CA the 6th through the 10th. Other runs keep the storms just to our North.
That will be the focus this week. The overall teleconnection patterns are not favorable the next 2 weeks. The MJO is moving towards the Western Pacific which favors a ridge unless there is undercutting, and the PNA pattern is forecast to be positive which is a ridge for the West Coast. The PNA pattern is forecast to finally drop negative by the middle of March. The odds are in our favor to get some big storms here in March after the past 2 months. BA