The next storm will move in across the Tahoe basin on Saturday. We should see light snowfall on the mountain during the day Saturday into Saturday evening. The latest forecast models show 2-4 inches for the mountain possible by Saturday night.
The ridge of high pressure builds back in along the West Coast Sunday and stays there next week bringing a return of dry and sunny conditions.
The GFS forecast model has not skipped a beat over the past few days in showing a series of storms starting next weekend the 18th and lasting at least a week. The European forecast model shows a similar storm for next weekend. The Canadian forecast model has a storm off the coast by the 19th but keeps us dry next weekend.
Although the Canadian and European forecast models still don't show the storm train the GFS has for week 2, they are trending slightly towards a breakdown of the ridge that has been keeping us dry. I think it's a good sign that the European model this morning shows a possible storm for next weekend.
The cold air coming off Siberia and the warm water in the Northeast Pacific argue that the trough will continue to deepen over the Aleutian Islands and the ridge will continue off the West Coast. So even though the GFS forecast model is consistent with the jet stream breaking down the ridge week 2 with storms, confidence is still not high. The forecast confidence will rise if the other forecast models jump on board and they all show a breakdown of the ridge and storms in their forecast for week 2 five days from now.