The forecast models disagree slightly with timing of the main push of heavy precip and how long it lasts, but they are in decent agreement on total precip. Some models have precip starting as early as Wednesday afternoon and other models bring in precip by Wednesday night. The initial band of precip is from a sagging cold front pushing South down the coast very slowly. The snow levels will start out around 8000 ft. before falling closer to 7000 ft. Wednesday night.
As a low approaches Northern CA on Thursday the cold front pushes further South. The combination of the two will increase precip and lower snow levels to the base. The question is on the timing of the system pushing in off the Pacific. The GFS has it pushing in as late as Thursday night. This will determine when the heaviest snow falls. It looks like snow showers will linger into Friday behind the front.
The forecast models this morning are pushing the 2+ inches of precip towards the Tahoe Basin. I am going to stick with the forecast from the last few days but even with the snow level drop timing I'm a little more confident in the higher end of the forecasted totals. The forecast is 1-2 feet on the mountain and 6-12 inches in the village by Friday morning.
We have much colder air in place over the weekend behind the front. Another low will approach the coast on Sunday. Most forecast model runs have it dropping down the CA coast keeping the precip to our West. There is still a chance it comes further inland so we will keep watching that.
Next week looks to start out cool and dry as the trough shifts slightly East and a weak ridge builds off the coast. The models are showing a system sliding down the West Coast next Thursday-Friday. That will be the next chance of snow that we will watch.