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54º
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Winter Returns for Spring /

Submitted by ba March 14, 2013 - 10:37am Weather

Enjoy the Spring weather this week because we could see quite a turn around starting next week.

We will start to cool down a little on Sunday as a storm moves through the Pacific NW. It may get cloudy and breezy. Then on Monday we see a return of brief ridging ahead of the storm for Tuesday-Thursday. We should see South winds start to increase ahead of the approaching system.

Over the past 24 hours forecast models have continued to come more in line with each other and there is not much spread now. That increases confidence in a storm and also allows us to start talking about potential snowfall amounts.

The precip from the approaching system may begin to push into CA as early as Tuesday afternoon with snow levels starting above 7000ft. Cold air will begin to filter in as the cold front approaches Tuesday night and snow levels should drop to lake level by Wednesday morning. The heaviest precip will fall during the day on Wednesday as the jestream takes direct airm at us. This will be a decent snowstorm all the way down to lake level.

This storm could drop as much snow as the last storm but in one day instead of 3 days. Some forecast model runs are fast in clearing out the storm by Thursday morning. Others keep the snow showers going through Thursday with slightly higher snowfall totals. 36 hours totals by Thursday morning as portrayed by the forecast models this morning are around 12-18 inches at the base, and 18-24 inches on the mountain.  Still a littel over 5 days out from the start of the precip so it's a little early for confidence in the snowfall forecast, but with consistent runs and agreement among the forecast models the confidence is on the higher end for this far out.

Some of the forecast models try to bring in another wave Friday into Saturday but confidence is low in that. The rest of the forecast models are in agreement showing the next storm possibly moving in around Sunday the 24th.  That looks to be the next chance of a storm only 3 days after the first storm next week.

The GFS forecast model keeps the storms coming right through the end of the month. We are into a negative PNA pattern which is a pattern of troughs for the West Coast and increased chances of storms. Hopefully we stay in that pattern into April and pick up much need snow here the last quarter of the ski season. BA

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