We will see dry conditions through Monday before a system will try to break down the ridge on Tuesday. Earlier in the week the European forecast model was showing precip making it to the basin with this system and the GFS forecast model kept the precip to our North. They both showed the precip staying to our North the past couple of days but then the GFS started pushing the precip further South last night. It has continued pushing it further South this morning and is currently bringing in enough precip for a few inches on the mountain. The European and Canadian models still keep all of the precip to our North in Northern CA and Oregon. We will continue to watch the trend.
The next system pushes into the West Coast Thursday into Friday as a trough tries to dig down the West Coast. The GFS and Canadian forecast models are keeping most of the precip to our North in far Northern CA and Oregon with only light amounts of snow making it down to the Tahoe Basin. They also have the precip clearing out by next weekend. The European forecast model is further South with the precip and has the system sticking around into next weekend. It is showing enough liquid for at least several inches. We will continue to watch the trend on this system as well.
Week 2 it looks like the trough will shift East over the Central U.S. to start and then shift back West towards the end. That would bring another break in the storms after next weekend and then an increased chance later in week 2. Any storms beyond 7 days are in fantasyland, but the models are showing some bigger storms approaching the West Coast in fantasyland later in week 2.