The ridge of high pressure continues to be stuck along the West Coast through the next week keeping us dry. It begins to move towards Alaska week 2 allowing a chance for a system or two before the end of the month.
A majority of the forecast models are showing a pattern change week 2. A pattern change means a different setup than what we currently have, and usually on that is more favorable for storms. But it doesn't always mean big storms, that we have to wait and see as we get closer. What is nice to see is that the models are all moving the strong ridge along the West coast to a position near the Aleutian Islands by the end of the month. That should make it easier for storms to make it into the West Coast.
The CFS climate model sees the same pattern and has the precipitiation above average the last few days of Jan into the first 2 weeks of February.
The change in the pattern is forecasted to begin about 10 days from now. With most of the forecast models showing a shift in the pattern confidence is growing. The question is what does that mean for our weather?
The weak storms at the end of the month are 2 weeks out and in fantasy land still. The models are actually all over the place with the last few days of the month. That is usually what happens when there is a change in the pattern. The CFS forecast for the first 2 weeks of February is way out in fantasy land, but it shows what could happen if the pattern shifts to a ridge over the Aleutians and a trough trying to build into the West.