An area of low pressure is currently approaching the CA coast.This has already spread cloud cover over the area this morning. As the center of the low moves Southeast today down the coast we could see some snow showers. Not expecting much accumulation only a dusting to an inch on the mountain.
On Monday a cold front will push down from the North reinforcing the cold air already in place. This front has limited moisture with it so we are only expecting a slight chance of snow showers and a dusting of snow again on the mountain.
The next cold front that will push through on Thursday will have better dynamics and will pull in some Pacific moisture. The latest forecast model runs agree that we could see 3-6 inches of snow with up to 9 inches up top. Snow showers could last into Friday morning before we have a short break Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon.
By Saturday night moisture streaming from across the Pacific coming under low pressure spinning in the Gulf of Alaska may reach the Tahoe Basin. There is still a question on how far South the heaviest precip is aimed and we will have to keep monitoring the next few days. Current forecast model runs are similar to yesterday in bringing the precip far enough South for a significant snow event Saturday night into Monday. (measured in feet)
It will be interesting to see what happens with this next weekend. There will be lots of cold air in place this time which is different than this past storm. That means snow levels will start out much lower below lake level and then could come up near or just above lake level. The models tend to under do precip totals this far out as well. Over the next few days we could see the heaviest precip shift to our North or increase and be aimed right at us. So we will be watching closely, keep your fingers crossed.
The long-lange models agree that low pressure will remain in the Gulf of Alaska directing storms into the West Coast. They don't agree from run to run on whether the storm track shifts North of us for a few days after next weekend and then back into CA by mid-month, or the storms continue from next weekend through mid-month.